On the bond market the trend was negative

Access of weakness was that passenger. While the dollar has accused the kick yesterday after the publication of the US trade balance for the month of July. A $ 68 billion, the deficit reached a new record, beyond the expectations of analysts who projected a deficit of 65.5 billion. But, if he has briefly faltered (euro worth up to 1,2733 dollar), the greenback quickly taken over and, later in the day, was at the level of Monday, 1,2683 dollar to the euro. Hesitating in the yen, the dollar eventually be assessed also in the Japanese currency. After having fluctuated around 117,60 yen, the dollar climbed to reach a peak of 117,96 yen and 117,92 Yen in early evening. The dollar resumed more than 3 against the yen since the beginning of August.

Yet, the sense of investors in U.S. currency, measured in the latest barometer of Merrill Lynch, is rather negative. "The fund managers continue to promote the yen and to take their distance with the dollar, even if this strategy has already borne fruit," the Bank observed. For the next twelve months, 46 of investors thus anticipate a decline in the dollar, while 43 of panel build on an appreciation of the yen. Team changes of Merrill Lynch in the industrialized between 1984 and 2003 examined 16 episodes of reversal of the current deficits and observed that, traditionally, the currency of a country continues to decline for three years after the peak of the deficit. "We believe that the dollar should continue to decline, inflation remains higher in the United States than elsewhere and a substantial slowdown in us growth", concludes Alex Patelis, responsible for policy change, at Merrill Lynch.

01/12 - 07/12 Reach Zac Brown Band Tickets staging in Cheyenne Frontier Days, Germain Arena. Zac Brown Band is staging in Cheyenne, Estero and North Little Rock. Zac Brown Band tickets

03/12 - 05/12 Attain The Black Keys Tickets playing in Schottenstein Center, Target Center. The Black Keys is playing in Columbus, Minneapolis and Boston. The Black Keys tickets

02/12 - 03/12 Pick up Jimmy Buffett Tickets staging in KFC Yum! Center, North Charleston Coliseum. Jimmy Buffett is staging in Louisville, North Charleston and North Little Rock. Jimmy Buffett tickets

Technical considerations

However part of technical considerations is the reaction of the dollar to a figure should have been penalized. Some apparently waited that the horizon is released after the publication of the trade balance to regain positions on the American currency.

But perhaps the explanation lies partly also on the calendar. For Société Générale analysts, investors remain primarily focused on the monetary perspective. "The main risk factor for the dollar this week will be the publication of prices of imports Thursday and Friday consumer prices", they point out. The members of the Federal Reserve repeatedly pointed out the persistent risk of inflationary pressures, suggesting that a new increase in rates might be necessary, after already 17 increases since June 2004. The idea that the status quo, decided by the Fed on 8 August, is only a pause in monetary tightening cycle and did not mark the end is still support for the dollar.

Investment reports

BNP Paribas analysts believe that the US currency has also reports of investment related to the decline in raw materials and markets of Latin America. This support could, according to them, bring the euro below 1.26 dollar level.

On the bond market, the trend was negative. Nicholas Garganas, a member of the Council of the European Central Bank, expressed his "concern" of inflation. Stakeholders, which are not yet the ECB bring its refinancing more than 3.50 rate, might be led to revise their forecasts. Performance, changing to the inverse of the price of bonds, of German borrowing ten years is is stretched by 4 basis points, to 3,841, while that of the OAT French same maturity was 4 points, 3,849.