1 billion currently to 550 million by 2030

Growing inequality between nations and within the country, destabilization of the labour markets, climate change, or even destruction of fisheries resources... In its latest report on global economic prospects (1), published today, the World Bank does not fail to draw the alarm before the challenges that will face the nations in the coming years. To support their demonstration, the authors of the report have painted the portrait of the world as he announced in less than twenty-five years. For them, there is no doubt that globalization will not only continue to accelerate. Mainly due to the integration of more and more pushed emerging countries such as China, the India or even Brazil and the Mexico.

In his scenario, global gross domestic product of the planet would be 35,000 billion to 72.000 billion by 2030 if, by then, the average growth rate of the rich countries amounted to 2.5 and that of the developing countries to 4.2. At the same time, the population rose to 8 billion, compared to 6.5 billion today. This growth will probably reduce poverty in the world and greatly increase the middle class. Nothing that in emerging countries, the latter would increase from 400 million to 1.2 billion people, of which a majority would be concentrated in East Asia. For François Bourguignon, the Chief Economist of the Bank, "the number of people with less than 1 dollar a day to live could be reduced by half, 1.1 billion currently to 550 million by 2030." Due to the increase of wealth, income per capita in the developing countries would reach 11,000 dollars in 2030 (compared to $ 4,800), equivalent to that of the Czech and Slovak Republics. China, the Mexico and the Turkey would have standards of living comparable to that of the Spain of today. Simultaneously, the trade may more than triple to represent, in 2030, 27,000 billion.

Would all be so for best best worlds if these forecasts accompanied a setback of medal. Let's start by warming. Because the increase in production means, for the World Bank, annual greenhouse gas emissions will increase by 50 by 2030 and that they will likely by 2050 in the absence of far-reaching reforms to double. In this framework, poor countries will need assistance in the development of rich countries to adapt to future changes in environmental.

Avoid a major disaster

A further setback is the increased competition between the different countries in terms of employment. "With the expansion of trade and the rapid diffusion of technologies to developing countries, unskilled jobs around the world, as well as some non-manual workers less skilled, will face increasing competition across borders," said Uri Dadush, Director at the Bank of the Group of studies of the prospects for development. Instead to preserve existing jobs, countries must support workers affected by restructuring and their provide opportunities through training and education. Not to mention the risk of pandemics or the problems of the exploitation of fisheries resources threatened, the World Bank insists on cooperation between nations to avoid a major disaster in decades to come.