Home does not hesitate to revisit its heritageAnd for now society is still subscribed to the lean regimeAvishai Cohen and Goran Bregovic Sunday eveningFind our folder on the Clearstream trial onBut I want to be able to listen as I wantAdidas and Puma should follow in his footstepsThe vaccine should be available midOctoberThe ISP should however stop supply of Fund of funds3 for the whole of the DJ Stoxx 600 companiesAbroad these activities are concentrated in universitiesThe nuance is size: inflation figures published yesterday by the Indian authorities are "unusual, but not unexpected," held the Secretary of finance, Ashok Chawla. Unusual, it is certain: it was more than thirty years that wholesale, considered by India as the best indicator of inflation, prices were not gone down. However, in early June, inflation was negative, at 1.6 over a year. It is the month of August 2008, when wholesale prices had increased by 12.9 over a year. But, precisely, it is this period of high inflation, in mid-2008, that prices are now down over a year. "Base effect", as economists, plays for negative inflation. Nothing unexpected, therefore, and unlikely that it was the beginning of a spiral of deflation.
A vicious circle of falling prices which is generally accompanied by an economy weak would be all the more surprising that the time is now to return of optimism, in India. Two factors have restored colours to business in the last month. The first is internal: since the re-election in mid-May coalition led by the Congress (center left) but of its former Communist allies, the way seems open to a balanced economic steering quinquennium, to a policy of economic openness which is not the poorest on the edge of the road. A new, a priori, good for growth and the stability of the country. Good tactician, the Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh, has established a team of recognized politicians. This is particularly the case of Pranab Mukherjee, Finance Minister, previously responsible for Foreign Affairs, whose skill is no longer to show.
Return investors
However, two weeks to present its first budget, Pranab Mukherjee has an another asset, external this time. After months of panic and overcautious all-out, international investors are beginning to find the route of the major emerging countries. Encouraged by economic growth significantly higher than those found in developed countries, they now seem to place the India at the top of their agenda. A figure reflects this new craze: while in 2007, the India had allowed 15 of the investment portfolio to emerging countries, it has received 25 of these same investments since early 2009. After an "annus horribilis" in 2008, which saw 12 billion fled the country, the capital are finally back. This movement is very recent: on the 5.5 billion arrived in India since January, 4 billion came in May. A thrill that begins to resemble a renaissance.
Immediate benefits
The beneficial impact is immediate, for an economy that was suffering from a shortage of liquidity: the money circulating again, banks find the path of credit, business access to capital and economic prospects are reviewed on the rise. While a 5 growth scenario was not to exclude for 2009, is now refers to a number greater than 7. For three reasons, the budget puzzle should be less difficult than expected. On the one hand, better growth should ensure better tax receipts. On the other hand, the use of the loan is crucial, since the economy again. Finally, this same indebtedness, structural, becomes less problematic, because it threatens more of choking off the India of its liquidity. Provided that the current rally lasts...
